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The Weather Report: India likely to see scattered showers this week as monsoon changes gears to end its cycle

The line of withdrawal from Southwest Monsoon continues to pass through Khajuwala, Bikaner, Jodhpur, and Naliya

As the country entered the final week of monsoon 2022, heavy rains covered the vast regions in North India in the past week.

Large cities are at an abrupt halt due to waterlogging brought on by intense rains. The chaos is sweeping through smaller cities too, numerous cities across Haryana, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, and East Rajasthan have broken all-time records in rainfall during the month of September.

Record-breaking rainfalls in various regions of Haryana

Narnaul in the Mahendragarh district has recorded 196.0mm rainfall that ended at around 8:30 am on the 25th of September. This is the most single rainfall recorded in the month of September, breaking records previously set at 165.0mm on the 28th of September in 1996.

From 8:30 AM in the morning on Sunday Rohtak recorded 165mm of rain within just 9 hours. This was a break from its single-day record for highest record for rainfall in September of 158.9mm on the 11th of September 2009.

In addition, the city experienced 309mm of rainfall in the past 3 days. This is the largest rainfall recorded in September following 1995 when it saw more than 540mm of rainfall over the total of six days, leading to major flooding, based on the 3 days of rain accumulation flash flood-like conditions have been seen in particular during those 36-hour period of the month when the intensity of rain was at high.

Bhuna within the Fatehabad district received 377 millimeters of rain in the past 24 hours. Nearly all the annual rains at the station took place in the span of a single day.

The rainfall at other stations in the district:

Kulan — 268mm
Ratio -+ 207mm
Fatehabad city 140mm

Many areas of Gurgaon were submerged in constant heavy rains. The millennium city received 242mm of rain in the last three days, which is the second-highest rainfall for September over the last decade.

The massive rains in a relatively short period also affected existing Kharif crops across the State. Bajra as well as rice have been mainly affected since the fields are submerged by the waters.

The observatory at the base of Delhi Safdarjung was able to observe 18.6mm of rainfall over the last 24 hours that ended at 8:30 am on the 25th of September. The total for the month has reached 164.5mm against the norm of 118.2mm the deviation from the norm is 39 percent for the month.

In the capital, the annual Safdarjung’s rainfall surpassed 500mm in rainfall at 516.9mm on 1 June however, a decrease of -19 percent has occurred typical for this time of year, as the normal record is 635.1mm rains during this time.

The credit for the exceptional rainfall at the conclusion of the season is due to the low-pressure zone that was traveling through to the Bay of Bengal across Central India to North India toward the close of the week. It was stationary in West Uttar Pradesh and Adjoining south Haryana for three days consecutively before curving back towards Uttarakhand due to the upcoming western disturbance trough.

The past week’s weather was mostly in the dry regions of South India in absence of any significant weather system. Central and eastern regions of the country experienced near-normal rainfall.

According to IMD information, the pan-Indian monsoon rains surpassed 900mm on Sunday

* As of 1st June India as a whole has recorded an average of 909.3mm rainfall, compared to the average of 848.5mm which is a difference from the norm is +7%. The departure is expected to be similar to last Saturday’s total of +7%. The rains were distributed evenly across the nation as the North received the largest portion of the course of the week.

Subdivision-wise seasonal rainfall figures

* Southern Peninsula: Actual 851.4mm against the mean of 688.5mm +24% deviation from the norm.

* East * East North East India: Actual 1103.2mm against the normal 1327.4mm, -17% deviation from the normal.

* North West India: Actual 586.5mm as compared to the normal 580.6mm +1% deviation from the norm.

* Central India: Actual 1146.0mm against the mean of 959.7mm +19% deviation from the norm.

The synoptic of the present time features weather conditions in India as of September 25:

* The line of withdrawal from Southwest Monsoon continues to pass through Khajuwala, Bikaner, Jodhpur, and Naliya.

The Low-Pressure Area across north Haryana and its neighborhood has been extended across north Punjab and the neighborhood, with an associated cyclonic circulation that extends upwards to 4.5 km above sea level.

* The east-west trough is located starting from through the Low-Pressure Area over north Punjab and its surrounding areas to the southeast Bihar across Haryana and Uttar Pradesh extending up to 1.5 km above sea level.

* The cyclonic flow over the West-central Bay of Bengal and its adjoining Andhra Pradesh coast now lies over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal & neighboring areas and extends to 3.1 km above sea level.

* The West Disturbance is an abyss in mid-tropospheric western westerlies. Its axis is located at 5.8 km above sea level approximately along Long. 70degE, to the northern part of Lat. 27degN persists.

* The north-south trough of Long. 87degE, to North of Lat. 20degN that extends up to 3.1 km above sea level. It has since decreased in size.

All India Weather Forecast till 1st October:

North India

The long-running spell of heavy rains in northern India is nearing an end as the low-pressure region diminishes and is expected to be gone by Sunday night.

Dry North West winds appear over the states from Monday to Wednesday and as a consequence, the dry conditions are likely to prevail in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan throughout the coming week. The moisture content will begin to decrease and the nights will turn more pleasant, with temperatures within the range of 22 to 25 degrees Celsius. The sunny conditions will ensure that temperatures rise by about 4-5degC and will result in slightly warmer evenings.

The monsoon’s slow withdrawal progress will resume in the coming week, since the conditions are favorable for the removal of South West Monsoon from most regions of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, and some areas in Uttar Pradesh and Western Himalayas on October 1.

Expected precipitation accumulation up to 1 October

* Uttar Pradesh: 40mm
* Uttarakhand: 30mm
* Himachal Pradesh: 20mm
* Jammu and Kashmir: 5mm
* Delhi NCR: 1mm
* Haryana: 1mm
* Punjab: 1mm
* Rajasthan: 1mm

Central India

The monsoon’s active phase is gradually fading from the majority of regions in Central India.

Northwest winds that are dry from northern India can affect the climate in central India over the coming week, with the monsoon likely to leave more areas of Gujarat and a few parts in West Madhya Pradesh by 1 October, as the weather is likely to be dry.

In October, the thunderstorms that typically are common throughout Pune and the interior of Maharashtra in the time of monsoon retreat are expected to begin during the next week. generally speaking, monsoon rainfall events are expected to decrease across both Maharashtra as well as Chhattisgarh.

Expected precipitation accumulation up to 1 October

* Maharashtra: 50mm
* Chhattisgarh: 30mm
* Madhya Pradesh: 20mm
* Gujarat: 10mm

East as well as North East India

The next week is likely to be a time of inactivity Bay of Bengal means the ocean will not be hosting any low-pressure zone for the 7 days. Under this scenario, widespread rain is not expected to be seen in the nation’s North East.

Due to the high frequency of a trough in lower elevations, convective rains will continue to be active.

A few scattered thunderstorms of moderate to intense intensity are possible throughout Odisha, Jharkhand, East Bihar, and West Bengal. Moderate to light rain is also possible throughout Arunachal Pradesh Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, and Sikkim during the period from 26 September to 1 October.

Some parts of Kolkata will experience scattered rains and somewhat humid weather throughout the festival of Durga Puja.

Expected Precipitation accumulation till 1st October:

* North East India: 70mm
* Odisha: 50mm
* West Bengal: 30mm
* Jharkhand: 30mm
* Bihar 10mm

Southern Peninsula

The conditions for weather throughout South India have been fairly dry and clear for the past two weeks, except for the coastal areas in Karnataka along with Goa where rainfall has occurred in sporadic amounts.

In the coming week, the rains are likely to return in the southern region as the monsoon begins to recede from the northern regions of the country.

The east-west trough could create convective cloud formation in areas that include Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka scattered moderate rains are expected throughout the region from the 28th of September to the 1st of October.

The rains are expected to increase in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana this week, with moderate to fairly heavy rains.

Expected Precipitation accumulation till 1st October:

* Telangana: 70mm
* Andhra Pradesh: 50mm
* Goa: 40mm
* Karnataka: 40mm
* Tamil Nadu: 30mm
* Kerala: 20mm

The next week is likely to be the final week of monsoon 2022 since the language of the India Meteorological Department states seasonal rains from June to September. Rains after October 1 are considered to be in the post-monsoon season. The exact withdrawal status isn’t considered in the documentation.



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