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Expert prediction for Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, betting odds and picks to win El Clasico

The world’s most beloved football rivalry is a love affair. But this year’s El Clasico might have more bite.

Real Madrid hosts Barcelona, as the two sides are tied at the top of the La Liga table. However, the Blaugrana hold a slight advantage in goal difference. Both sides have been unbeaten in league play thus far and both have identical records (7W0L-1D 22 points).

Barcelona has been outstanding in all eight domestic matches so far. They held their opponents to one goal and scored 20 goals of their own. After a draw at Inter Milan in midweek, a previously confident side is now in doubt and on the brink of being eliminated from the UEFA Champions League.

Madrid has been a great success in the Champions League and was one of the first teams to mathematically confirm their place in the knockout stages. They haven’t been dominating the competition in La Liga and in Europe and needed an Antonio Rudiger goal in midweek to draw with Shakhtar Donetsk.

Real Madrid has a reputation for rising to the occasion and they will be keen to remind Barcelona that the European champions and La Liga defending champions are based in Spain.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona betting odds

Real Madrid has a slight advantage in the betting market, but it is clear that this match can be won as both sides have more odds.

Markets expect goals to flow in this match despite Barcelona’s stellar league defensive record. ‘Both teams to score is the overwhelming favorite, as well as the 2.5-goal total. The 3.0 goal total is the even money goal.

CaesarsSports
Interaction
SkyBet
Real Madrid wins+1232.206/5
Draw+2603.5213/5
Barcelona win+2102.912/1
Both teams
Score Y/N
-180 / +1501.46 / 2.354/9, 13/8
Over/Under
2.5 goals
-160 / +1251.56 / 2.278/15, 11/8
Real Madrid, -0.5+1202.19
Barcelona +0.5-1501.63
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona betting odds

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona’s recent history

  • Real Madrid vs. Barcelona all-time record: Real Madrid 101 wins, Barcelona 97 wins, 51 draws

Real Madrid holds a slight advantage in the all-time series due to a recent run of wins. Los Blancos won five consecutive matches, four in La Liga and a Supercopa de Espana win. Barcelona then ended that streak in emphatic fashion with a 4-0 La Liga win at the Bernabeu in March.

Barcelona had a long and unbeaten streak against rivals before Real Madrid’s success. They won seven matches without losing from December 2017 to December 2019, with four wins, three draws, and five losses.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona’s last 5 matches

DateConcurrenceResult
Mar. 20, 2022La LigaReal Madrid 0-4 Barcelona
Jan. 12, 2022Supercopa de Espana
Semifinals
Barcelona 2-3 Real Madrid (a.e.t.)
Oct. 24, 2021La LigaBarcelona 1-2 Real Madrid
Apr. 10, 2021La LigaReal Madrid 2 Barcelona
Oct. 24, 2020La LigaBarcelona 1-3 Real Madrid
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona’s last 5 matches

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction

Both teams bring significant weaknesses to this match. Real Madrid has struggled to move the ball upfield without Luka Modric and this has caused the attack to suffer. Barcelona has made costly defensive errors.

Real Madrid will seek revenge after last season’s Champions League double and domestic league double was hampered slightly by a 4-0 loss at home to Barcelona in March. After their Champions League defeat against Inter Milan, Barcelona is under severe pressure. After spending a lot of money this summer, Xavi will want to keep his sign in good shape.

This match will be decided by injuries. Although Barcelona has a good defensive record (one goal allowed in La Liga), they will be without key defenders (Ronald Araujo and Andreas Christensen), while their replacements, Gerard Pique, and Eric Garcia, left much to be desired during midweek against Inter Milan. Sergio Busquets, the holding midfielder, appears to be getting slower with age. This is not the most ideal set-up for a matchup with one of the top attacking units in the country.

  • Moneyline Lean: Real Madrid
  • Against Spread Lean (handicap: Real Madrid-0.5 goals
  • Scoreline prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Best Bet

  • Pick: Real Madrid wins & both teams score (+275 at Caesars).

Real Madrid could take advantage of Barcelona’s defensive issues, as we have already mentioned. Los Blancos will also have to deal with their defensive problems and Thibaut Courtois, their star goalkeeper, may be absent.

Both teams have conceded more than 6.0 xGA in league play this season. However, both sides have been able to benefit from excellent goalkeeping and poor opposition ending. Real Madrid has conceded 6.28 goals, but only 5.03 goals on target allowed. This post-shot number measures expected goals based not only on the position of the shot but also on goalkeeper positioning and shot placement. Barcelona had a greater differential with 6.30 xGA and 4.69 Gota.

Although both teams have been spared by some opposition strikers so far, it should be different against world-class players such as Robert Lewandowski (7.56xG / 11.25xGOT this year), Karim Benzema, and Vinicius Jr.

Over 2.5 goals (-160 odds), are not worth much in this match. However, picking a winner and allowing both teams to score will give you a better return.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prop: Corners

  • Prop: Barcelona, with more corner kicks (+138 for Caesars)

Real Madrid is expected to win this match or have at least a lead in the match. This gives us clues about what to expect from the match flow.

Barcelona has been known to panic almost immediately after facing difficulties in recent years. While Xavi’s tactics seek creativity through wingers cutting in on the dribble and midfielders sending line-breaking through-balls up their gut, once they concede a goal, their attacking response is far more chaotic marked with desperate crossing into the box.

Players will try to play vertically down their wings and a flood of corners follows. They scored 10 corners against Inter midweek and 13 in Milan seven days prior. They managed to pick up eight corners even in their season-opener against Rayo Vallecano, where they were held to an indifferent draw.

Barcelona could be again behind at any stage in the match. They may resort to the same strategy under pressure and score more set pieces.

Prop flier Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Half-by-half result

  • Prop flier: Barcelona win 1H / Real Madrid win 2H (+700 on Caesars)

The most striking difference between these clubs is the way they play in the first and second halves.

Barcelona is the clear league leader in first-half play. They have 9.48 xG in La Liga play during the first 45 minutes and a 10.14xGOT final number. They have now collected 11.48xG in the second half, slightly behind 11.24 on xGOT.

While teams always have a higher xG number than opponents in the second half, it is important to note the difference. Barcelona’s xG increase from the first half to the second is only 21 percent.

Real Madrid’s first-half xG was 7.78 with a 7.11 xGOT. Los Blancos, however, open the doors after halftime with a 10.26xG mark and a better 11.09xGOT. This is a 32 percent increase on xG in the second half and a huge 56 percent increase on xGOT.

What are the results of these metrics? Real Madrid needed second-half winners against Espanyol and Mallorca in league play. They also had to win the game against Shakhtar Donezk midweek, where Rudiger’s last-gasp equalizer was enough for them to take a point.

Barcelona has taken an early lead in the league against Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid, Sevilla. Elche, Mallorca, and Celta Vigo, plus Inter just a few hours ago. Take Barcelona to win the first period as a flyer with huge odds. Real Madrid will be victorious after the break, based on historical data.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona TV channel, live stream

DateTimeTV ChannelStreaming
AustraliaMon, Oct. 1701:15 AESTOptus Sport
CanadaSun, Oct. 1610:00 ETTSN3TSN website/app
IndiaSun, Oct. 1619:45 ETSports18Voot Select
MalaysiaSun, Oct. 1622:15 MTBeIN SportsBeIN Connect
New ZealandMon, Oct. 1703:15 NZSTSky Sports 7 beIN SportsBeIN Connect
SingaporeSun, Oct. 1622:15 SSTBeIN SportsbeIN Connect, StarHub TV+
UKSun, Oct. 1615:15 ETPremier Sports 1, LaLigaTVPremier Player HD
USASun, Oct. 1610:00 ETESPN DeportesfuboTVESPN+
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona TV channel, live stream

UK: Sunday’s El Clasico tilt on Premier Sports 1 or LaLigaTV will be broadcast in the United Kingdom. You can stream it via Premier Player.

USA The match between Real Madrid (Barcelona) and Barcelona (Barcelona) can be viewed in the United States via ESPN Deportes. can also be viewed on ESPN+, along with all other La Liga matches.

ESPN Deportes can also be streamed on fuboTV. There’s also a special offer of $40 on the Latino package quarterly plans through October 16 for only $59.

Canada: This match will air in Canada on TSN3, and can also be streamed via the TSN app, or official website.

Australia: Australia’s exclusive broadcaster of La Liga is Optus Sport. They also broadcast the Premier League.

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